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Statistic Of The Week

13 May 2021

 

Last week, the future success of the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (1600m) winners was analysed. It was discovered that although winning fillies had triumphed in Group One events subsequently, the vast majority had struggled to make their presence felt in open Group One company. The same approach will be applied to the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (1600m) victors, focusing on their success in the same season and separately, as an older horse. 

When looking at the recent honour roll, the achievements of Poule d’Essai des Poulains winners stands out. From the last ten renewals, five of the ten colts have subsequently won at Group One level and eight of the ten have scored in Group company. 2020 winner Victor Ludorum is one of the two colts that was unable to win a Black Type contest after his Poule d’Essai des Poulains victory – however, he is expected to return for the 2021 season and has an opportunity to add further victories. 

The interesting point to note is the success of Poule d’Essai des Poulains winners if they race at four. All four colts in the last decade who raced into their four-year-old season were able to win another Group race and arguably showed the same level of form, or better, as an older horse. Persian King, winner of the G1 Prix du Moulin (1600m) and G1 Prix d’Ispahan (1800m) at four is a prime example. 

A potentially lucrative stud career means that many Poule d’Essai des Poulains victors will not race as an older horse. In the last decade, the French Classic has produced commercially attractive sires including Make Believe (sire of 2021 G1 Prix du Jockey winner Mishriff), The Gurkha (standing at Coolmore Ireland) and Olmedo (standing in Australia). 

However, it may be worthwhile for owners to look beyond the solitary Poule d’Essai des Poulains victory. In 2021, Persian King with G1 success when 4+ will be standing for 30,000 euros compared to the 5000 euros commanded by The Gurkha and Brametot, despite their double Group One victories. With the statistics strongly indicating that Poule d’Essai des Poulains winners achieve more as an older horse, it could be considered a shrewd move to continue racing – Victor Ludorum may add to this trend this season

Year

Horse

Subsequent Career Highlight (at 3)

Subsequent Career Highlight (4+)

2020

Victor Ludorum

3rd – G1 Prix du Jockey Club (2100m)

Yet to race at 4+

2019

Persian King

2nd – G1 Prix du Jockey Club (2100m)

1st – G1 Prix du Moulin (1600m)

2018

Olmedo

Unplaced in 2 starts

1st – G3 Prix Gontaut (1600m)

2017

Brametot

1st – G1 Prix du Jockey Club (2100m)

Unraced at 4+

2016

The Gurkha

1st – G1 Sussex Stakes (1600m)

Unraced at 4+

2015

Make Believe

1st – G1 Prix de la Foret (1400m)

Unraced at 4+

2014

Karakontie

1st – G1 Breeder’s Cup Mile (1600m)

Unraced at 4+

2013

Style Vendome

4th – G1 Prix Jean Prat (1400m)

Unraced at 4+

2012

Lucayan

Unplaced in 3 starts

1st – G2 Hollywood Turf Cup (2400m)

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